Crane Hot Line is part of the Catalyst Communications Network publication family.
As 2024 draws to a close, virtually everyone in the industry is trying to figure out what to expect from the rapidly approaching new year 2025.
We wonder what the economy be will like, what forces will drive it, what sectors will be hot or cool and what key challenges we will face.
Of course, no one knows for sure. Unforeseen events can have significant effects. Changes in political regimes, the price of materials, interest rates and even unforeseen pandemics can alter the outlook quickly.
Nonetheless, businesses must make some educated estimates in order to plan and move forward.
To give readers a feel for what 2025 might look like from different perspectives, Crane Hot Line asked experts from various aspects of the industry to tell readers a few key trends they expect in 2025.
Crane Hot Line thanks them all for sharing their insights with our readers.
General Contractors - Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, AGC
The outlook for construction is generally positive but has become more uncertain since the election.
Demand is strong for data centers, power projects, manufacturing plants and several categories of infrastructure. But the prospect of higher tariffs may drive up construction costs and invite retaliatory action by U.S. trading partners. Both of these consequences could lead to project cancellations.
While the stock market reacted favorably to the election results and the Federal Reserve continued cutting its short-term interest rate target, long-term interest rates moved higher.
These mixed impacts suggest that economic expansion is likely to continue but home buyers and issuers of municipal bonds, such as school districts, will face higher borrowing costs, limiting the growth of homebuilding and public construction projects.
Possible policy changes affecting both would-be immigrants and long-time foreign-born residents add yet another element of uncertainty to the outlook.
Contractors overwhelmingly list difficulty finding qualified employees as their top challenge.
The industry has long relied on foreign-born workers, and even a threatened reduction in that supply will make it harder to complete projects on time and on budget.
On the positive side, contractors can expect more favorable tax and regulatory policies than in recent years. But the timing of any changes remains murky.
In short, the industry is looking forward to further economic growth and strong demand for several types of large-scale projects.
However, it remains to be seen whether a new mix of policies provides a net benefit to the sector.
Fleet Owner - Chad Rados, Project Coordinator, ALL Family of Companies
The reach of the ALL Family of Companies stretches from Florida up through the southeastern U.S. and westward to Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
That footprint encompasses a variety of economies and demographics, as well as some surprises.
For example, while you’d expect Florida to be experiencing a population boom — which it is, growing at nearly three times the national rate — cold-weather metro areas Milwaukee and Minneapolis-St. Paul are also growing fast.
Consequently, ALL branches in Orlando, Tampa and seeming outlier Milwaukee are seeing many of the same types of projects.
They consist of all the things communities need when an influx of people moves in: more housing, improved roads and bridges, upgraded power generation and more schools and medical facilities.
One thing you’ll find in the Midwest that you won’t in sunny Florida is data centers.
The cooler Midwest climate is more conducive to those multi-acre indoor computer hard-drive farms.
Dozens of them are being built in Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. Each of these massive jobs can command up to 100 cranes.
Also popular in the Midwest are distribution centers for e-tailers and production plants for fuel cell batteries.
Southern Ohio and its metro hub Columbus are booming for all these reasons, as well as proximity to higher education.
For example, three luffing tower cranes helped build a recently finished project that adds 800 beds to Ohio State University’s Wexner Medical Center. A children’s hospital is also now under construction on the campus.
The normally reliable Chicago area has, in 2024, felt how high interest rates can quiet towering construction projects.
However, the region is poised to come roaring back in the new year with an expansion to O’Hare International Airport, highway corridors to its west, a new football stadium at Northwestern University and new warehouse and distribution construction downtown.
Indiana has been making infrastructure news for years due to the state’s heavy investment in reimagining the highway system around its metropolitan hubs.
But the state has been booming in general, with many large projects in the residential, energy and technology markets.
Financier - Harry Fry, President, Harry Fry & Associates
With the 2024 presidential election behind us, we can all focus on the future and 2025. Predicting rates and lending trends is at best a guess by any person.
Even the most dedicated economists and bankers are purely speculating based on historical modeling and consumer confidence, so basically guessing as well.
Besides rates, the United States banks are still dealing with Basel III risk compliance, which tends to cause consumer and commercial lending to be somewhat restrictive.
However, with a business-oriented administration, although it may take time, there may be a shift away from the global requirements of Basel III in the U.S.
That shift may lead to greater availability of capital to meet consumer and commercial demands.
A business-oriented administration should provide a shift towards pro-growth business instead of defensive attitudes.
The anticipation of taxes being held at current rates or lowered, the potential of eliminating unnecessary regulations and lower fuel cost may be a catalyst to get projects rolling quickly.
This all leads to potential higher demand for equipment and thereby an increase in financing/leasing requests.
The lending/leasing industry is always partial to positive trends and likes to ride the wave.
The only caveat, with all the potential positive trends and attitude, is whether manufacturers can produce products in appropriate numbers to meet the demand.
Most manufacturers we speak with have issues obtaining workers and skilled labor.
This is the same issue for most, if not all businesses. Will they, or do they, have the personnel to meet increased demand?
Overall, we believe 2025 will show positive demand for equipment lending/leasing.
The “experts” anticipate rates will decline throughout 2025. Barring any unforeseen domestic or international situations, we believe 2025 may be a good year for businesses and the capital markets.
Crane Manufacturer - Pat Collins, Director of Product Marketing, Link-Belt Cranes
Fortunately, the market for cranes has been solid throughout 2024, and, at this point, it appears that strength will continue in 2025.
We expect some of the key drivers to be the infrastructure and CHIPS acts, waterworks projects, building of the country’s industrial capacity, construction of data centers and wind-power work, along with others.
The expected volume of work will likely keep demand high for cranes of all kinds, from lattice-boom crawler, to telecrawler, rough-terrain, all-terrain and truck cranes.
Other factors we expect to contribute to demand include the ages of cranes in U.S. rental fleets, the lowering trend on interest rates, the upcoming schedules on engine emission regulations and the introduction of new models.
One of those new cranes is the 225|AT, a 225-USt capacity all-terrain crane that we rolled out during CraneFest in September.
The 225|AT joins the 175-USt 175|AT and 300-USt 300|AT in Link-Belt’s new generation of single-engine, five-axle all-terrains that combine excellent lifting capacity and reach with easy roadability, operator comfort and single-engine efficiency.
The first 300|AT will be delivered in January of 2025, and shipments of the new 225|AT will start by the second quarter.
Based on our strong backlog of orders for truck cranes, particularly four-axle models with capacities from 75 to 100 USt, it seems likely that taxi-crane work will remain strong in the new year. We are working hard to shorten lead times on those units.
One noticeable trend that will also likely continue industry wide in 2025 is customers planning purchases of all types of cranes further in advance.
Given some of the unit lead times, along with whatever supply challenges that may remain, crane owners are paying close attention to their crane needs farther down the road.
New and Used Crane Dealer - Jason MacKenzie, President, Select Crane Sales
Select Crane Sales expects to see several key trends developing in the new and used crane market for 2025.
One significant trend is the tightening availability of late model used cranes as demand has increased.
This issue is emerging because the higher prices of new cranes do not align with current rental rates.
That difference is making potential buyers more hesitant to invest in new machinery.
Despite this hesitance towards buying new, Select Crane Sales is seeing strong overall demand for both new and used cranes.
The lack of availability of late model used cranes has forced some buyers to take delivery of higher-priced new cranes to meet their project deadlines, a trend that will continue in 2025.
Another trend Select Crane Sales feels will affect dealers during 2025 stems from company acquisitions and fleet consolidations.
As crane rental companies and crane service providers combine their operations and consolidate their fleets, we expect they will offer some older or redundant units for sale.
Also, as crane fleet owners in general continue their efforts to streamline operations, we believe they will liquidate under-used assets.
That could offset some of the demand for used cranes, as older machines that have typically been held on to will instead become available for purchase.
Another noteworthy trend is growing optimism among buyers.
This anticipated shift can be partly attributed to expected changes in regulations that the incoming presidential administration might foster.
Buyers are feeling that the potential changes could invigorate the construction and crane markets.
They anticipate a boost in investment in manufacturing, data centers, the petroleum sector and heavy civil work.
Select Crane Sales’ focus for 2025 is the same as it has always been: offering customers a good mix of both new and used cranes to accommodate shifting availability in the market.
As an authorized partner of Tadano, Terex, Manitex and Wolffkran, we will continue to stock our inventory of new equipment.
In addition, we will continue to offer used cranes and bare-rental options in a wide range of capacities and at various prices to meet a wide range of customer needs.
